October extended Umbra’s strong YTD momentum, with most MPS models outperforming ARC. Equities saw broad gains led by Emerging Markets, global Health Care, and a sharp rally in Japan, while sterling weakness supported returns. Fixed income was resilient as gilts rose on softer inflation and spreads held firm. Gold gained +3.8% and infrastructure advanced. Better US–China relations, strong earnings, and a Fed rate cut boosted sentiment.
October extended Umbra’s strong year-to-date momentum, with most of the 31 risk-rated MPS models outperforming their respective ARC benchmarks. Gains were broad-based across equities, fixed income, and alternatives, and the extent of outperformance pushed the majority of models ahead of ARC for the year.
Global markets were buoyed by easing US–China tensions, resilient corporate earnings, and softer inflation indicators. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.0%, though Chair Powell emphasized that further near-term cuts were not guaranteed. Japan experienced a strong rally following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the country’s first female prime minister, with expansionary fiscal plans and a weaker yen supporting investor sentiment. UK equities also outperformed, helped by falling gilt yields and strength across commodity, financial, and defensive sectors.
Equity markets delivered another month of positive returns despite bouts of volatility. Technology and Health Care led global performance, supported by ongoing enthusiasm for AI-related earnings and easing regulatory pressure across the sector. Health Care benefited further from improving sentiment after Pfizer reached a drug-pricing agreement with the US government, which helped lift several of Umbra’s active holdings. Emerging Markets also performed strongly, with the Vanguard Global Emerging Markets position contributing meaningfully (+6.3%).
Fixed income continued to provide stability and incremental gains. Spread-related assets—including Emerging Market debt, hybrid bonds, and global high yield—performed well against a supportive macro backdrop. UK gilts advanced sharply (+2.9%) as softening domestic inflation and weakening labour data strengthened expectations of future Bank of England easing. Sterling’s –2% depreciation against the US dollar offered an additional tailwind relative to UK-anchored ARC benchmarks.
Alternative assets delivered mixed but generally positive results. Gold rose +3.8% during the month, briefly touching new record highs above $4,300/oz before retracing late in the period. Despite the pullback, the broader outlook remains supportive, driven by ongoing central bank accumulation, geopolitical tension, and a softer policy backdrop. Infrastructure continued to climb steadily (+1.8%), while developed-market property slipped –0.6% amid renewed caution in rate-sensitive sectors.
Umbra’s MPS models delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the full risk spectrum, reinforcing the effectiveness of the firm’s diversified, disciplined approach. One-, three-, and five-year returns remain ahead of primary ARC benchmarks, demonstrating consistent outperformance over multiple market cycles.
